Categories
Ealing and Northfield National politics

The trained economist on schools

Cllr Bell then goes on to talk about schools, or particularly Ealing part of the BSF programme. He says:

On top of this we have had the majority of our “Building Schools for the Future” funding brutally cut, meaning that we do not have any government money for the new High School in the north of the Borough or for 15 other High School building improvements including much needed Special Educational Needs provision – a particularly mean and cruel aspect of the Secretary of State’s decision.

He does not say who “brutally” halved the country’s capital spending plans so “meanly and cruelly”. It was of course the previous Labour chancellor Alastair Darling. Darling will I think be judged by history as one of the more honourable members of the Labour government. Unfortunately he was not quite honourable enough to spell out the implications of halving the country’s capital spending in December last year when he had the chance at the Pre-Budget Report.

If you go to table B13 on page 189 of the December 2009 Pre-Budget Report you can see how public sector net investment was due to be halved by Alastair Darling, see below (click to enlarge).

Darling made such a shocking cut to the country’s capital spending programme that during George Osborne’s budget speech he said:

We have faced many tough choices about the areas in which we should make additional savings, but I have decided that capital spending should not be one of them.

There will be no further reductions in capital spending totals in this Budget.

But we will still make careful choices about how that capital is spent. The absolute priority will be projects with a significant economic return to the country. Assessing what those projects are will be an important part of the autumn spending review.

BSF was always going to get axed whoever won the election. It was a dumb programme – its objective was to replace every secondary school in the country regardless of its current state and regardless of whatever other priorities there were. In addition to being unaffordable it was also unecessarily complicated and produced expensive, over-engineered but dull looking schools but that is another argument. Michael Gove’s mistake in announcing the curtailing of this programme was not to spell out that it was Darling’s cut. A much smarter, and necessarily smaller, schools building programme will emerge from the autumn spending review.

Categories
Ealing and Northfield National politics

The trained economist on history

Cllr Bell goes on to attempt to evoke a spurious folk memory of the dark days of the Tories:

We have a shortage of High School places of over 3,000 and a need for an extra 29 – 34 forms of entry at Primary level (each costing £4.5 m to accommodate) in the coming years. As a Council we have a legal and moral duty to provide school buildings for our children and we do not want to go back to the Tory past of freezing, leaking portable cabins but we are going to have our work cut out given our lack of financial resources.

As with most of the rest of what he says this is nonsense too. Go and look at Treasury figures for public sector gross investment as a percentage of GDP here.

You will see that whilst the Tories probably cut investment too much in the late nineties (a trajectory maintained by Labour for four years after they came into power) they consistently invested much more than Labour under the mendacious Gordon Brown ever did. Of course Brown always confused current spending with capital spending. But the facts are that in eighteen Tory years average public sector gross investment was 4.3% of GDP. Under the first twelve years of Labour it was 2.7% of GDP. Cllr Bell is wrong again but by now we are perhaps not surprised.

Categories
National politics

IFS is undermining its own reputation for objectivity

The BBC and Institute of Fiscal Studies are this morning spinning a lie about the last budget. The major driver for the disbenefit to the poor that they point up is of course the curtailing of housing benefits. This is largely a disbenefit to landlords and not to tenants.

Of course whilst the BBC story is headline stuff, the IFS have not published their findings online as of 7:38 am this morning so, as ever, a lie has run around the world before the truth has got its boots on.

Does anyone not want to see cases such as the Acton Afghan case tackled? The Acton Afghan case and thousands like it were the product of Labour’s mad Local Housing Allowance scheme. High council rents are a product of Labour’s rent equalisation scheme which entailed them encouraging councils to raise council rents above inflation to equalise them with housing association rents. Both of these moves would have generated spurious increases in income for the poor. Of course they are in reality increases to the income of landlords with tenants on housing benefit. Clamping down on housing benefit curtails landlords’ income, not tenants’.

The IFS need to recast their figures to show the effect on tenants and landlords separately.

Categories
Communications disease National politics

Ads hit half billion for second year

When the country is going to the bad at a rate of £155 billion per annum, or roughly £5K per worker per year, it is a relief to find an area of government spending where you can happily slice out some hundreds of millions and stop bugging people too. Last year all of those irritating, hectoring government commercials reminding you to pay your TV licence and tell the revenue that your circumstances have changed cost £532 million. This was admittedly down from previous year’s record of £540 million, see the annual report of the Central Office of Information published today here.

Gordon “end of spin” Brown managed to spend £1 billion in two years puffing himself and all of his works. In the Major years government ad spending was more like £100 million per annum, you can see all of the histrorical figures here (scroll down to bottom).

According to this year’s annual report:

A general election was called in April 2010 and the majority of government marketing and communications was halted during the election period. The new Government, formed in May, implemented an immediate freeze on government advertising and marketing spend.

Government will continue to commission campaigns this year, but only where there is an essential need to do so. Exceptions will require approval from relevant directors of communications or from the Cabinet Office and HM Treasury, depending on the budget.

That is what I voted for! At last some sanity.

Categories
National politics

Let freedom reign

Today’s launch of the Your Freedom website in support of Nick Clegg’s great reform bill caught my imagination as it did many others. I put up my idea this morning but it took a few attempts – I guess the system they set up was somewhat overloaded. My idea is a small one:

Abolish regulation requiring no smoking signs in all public buildings

The 2007 smoking ban came with a totally unnecessary regulation that all public places must have a specific sign at the entrance. The regulation was called the Smoke-free (Signs) Regulations 2007. This included places such as churches where no-one ever smokes as well as all businesses and buildings run by volunteers.

In theory those in charge of buildings without signs can be fined £1,000. In practice this never happens but the regulation still exists.

The law abiding British public know that it is against the law to smoke in a public place and observe the ban diligently. These signs were unnecessary the day the ban came in to place and are unnecessary now.

Most people are happy with the ban and this suggestion is in no way meant to undermine it.

Millions of signs have to be maintained to comply with this law. A lot of businessmen and volunteers have to keep putting these signs up if they want to comply strictly with the law.

Categories
National politics

What’s good for the goose

I will be reading the full coalition agreement with interest over the next few days.

One thing that already leaps out at me is that the coalition has adopted some key Tory policies on transparent government, namely:

  • We will require full, online disclosure of all central government spending and contracts over £25,000.
  • We will create a new ‘right to data’ so that government-held datasets can be requested and used by the public, and then published on a regular basis.
  • We will require all councils to publish meeting minutes and local service and performance data.
  • We will require all councils to publish items of spending above £500, and to publish contracts and tender documents in full.

As someone who has harried the GLA and various government departments to collect information on what they are doing I am thrilled to see this taking place. It already happens at the GLA since Boris came to power (the threshold there is £1,000), see here, and Windsor and Maidenhead council (threshold £500), see here.

I look forward to the power that these measures will give to opposition councillors in Ealing. As a big believer in transparency one of my proudest achievements as a portfolio holder in Ealing was to get the parking people to publish stats showing how many tickets were issued each month for which offence and which location, see here.

I am not very pleased though to see central government getting away with a £25,000 threshold whereas local government has to work with a £500 threshold. I would suggest that £1,000 all round would be more sensible. I know that lots of people think that local government is a bit Mickey Mouse and amateurish. As someone who has tried to sell to both central and local government I can tell you that local government is a lot more penny-pinching and street-wise than central government. This discipline is much more sorely needed in central government and the government has let itself of lightly. It smells prime minister. You really should sort this.

Categories
National politics

Coalition agreement published

It is good to see the details here. It starts off reassuringly with the deficit.

The parties agree that deficit reduction and continuing to ensure economic recovery is the most urgent issue facing Britain. We have therefore agreed that there will need to be:

– a significantly accelerated reduction in the structural deficit over the course of a Parliament, with the main burden of deficit reduction borne by reduced spending rather than increased taxes;

– arrangements that will protect those on low incomes from the effect of public sector pay constraint and other spending constraints; and

– protection of jobs by stopping Labour’s proposed jobs tax.

Quite right.

We are so used to seeing documents filled with colour, white space and silly pictures. It is refreshing to see one of the key documents governing our lives for at least the near future in black and white, literally.

Categories
National politics

On LBC tonight

I am doing the politics slot on Petrie Hosken’s show on LBC 97.3 FM tonight from 8pm to 9pm. I have done it a couple of times before but it will be fun to do it at such an interesting time (puts me in mind of a certain Chinese curse).

I will be up with Labour blogger Tim McLoughlin and LibDem PPC and blogger Helen Duffet.

There is really only one issue – which has not been much discussed over the last week I am afraid. The deficit. The structural deficit is about 10% of GDP or about 20% of government expenditure. Depending on our growth over the next couple of years it may be worse than that. The implication is that we need to take £50-80 billion out of government expenditure. This is going to be eye-wateringly real and I am glad the Tories will get to share the opprobrium with the LibDems, remember Mervyn King’s recent warning that whoever wins the election will be out of power for a generation. That way there will be two parties taking the hits and two parties working to nail the problem on Gordon Brown where the blame firmly lies. Maybe these two men can save our country and not wreck their own futures in the process.

Categories
National politics

Better late than never

I would have preferred to see a majority Conservative government take power four days ago but it is still good to see Cameron in Downing Street today.

It is great to see the back of Gordon Brown. I know that it is usual to speak well of the (politically) dead but Gordon Brown was always the great divider. His repeated use of the construction “strong, stable and principled government” over the last few days was a case in point. Was he saying that a Tory government would be an unprincipled government? A total scuz to the last.

Categories
Ealing elections 2010 National politics

Four votes today

There are two elections in Ealing today.

Please vote for David Cameron and the Conservatives. We need a strong, capable leader to take us through the next few years. Gordon Brown and Labour have systematically wrecked our finances. Don’t let them blame it on the banks or the credit crunch or international conditions. It is all nonsense. Quite simply government spending has been allowed to rip way in excess of the government’s ability to collect taxes from you and me. Nick Clegg and the LibDems are not the answer.

Please vote for your local Conservatives. You have three votes for three councillors in your ward. Please choose your three Conservative candidates. In four years we have demonstrated that we can deliver decent services to everyone whilst keeping the council tax down. Campaigning four years ago Ealing was visibly down-at-heel. Today it is very different. If you like it vote for it, otherwise it will slip away again.