Police numbers – there is another way

One of the main stories yesterday was the news that police numbers have fallen by 6,000 or 4% over the course of the last year. Altogether police numbers may fall by up to 16,000 up to 2015 as a result of police budget cuts. See BBC story here. The Telegraph story mentioned that crime had fallen by 4% in the same period too.

A simple measure that would offset the full 16,000 loss in police up to 2015 would be to close police canteens and ask officers to buy their meals out like most of the rest of us do. This means that the deterrent effect of police being physically present would be extended even whilst officers eat. They would also save travel time between their duty stations and their canteens. This is common practice in the US.

In London police get free travel on Tubes and buses. Again, by requiring them to travel in uniform in return for this huge benefit you get policing for free.

Both changes are worth 10-15%.

In London the police have delivered 1 million additional patrols a year by the simple expedient of asking officers to patrol alone.

The police are probably our most hidebound and unmodernised public service. LibDem GLA member, Dee Doocey’s campaign on perks for senior officers in the Met illustrates again how much further there is to go. There is another way.

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Ealing to get £85 million of new capital spending from the Tory-led government

The tweeting Labour cabinet members in Ealing were notably quiet during tonight’s cabinet meeting. Maybe they have come to the realisation that it is unseemly to be diddling with their smartphones during public meetings?

The most important report tonight was the Budget Strategy 2012/13 and the most important element of this was the stunning £131 million of new general fund capital expenditure outlined by the council. Where is the money coming from you might ask? The answer is that £85 million is coming from central government mainly to be spent on providing additional primary and secondary school places. This council has been silent on the wall of money coming to Ealing from central government to help us tackle some of our most pressing problems.

It is worth looking at some of these programmes in detail, in Appendix 4 of the report here.

The biggest item of expenditure is maintaining and improving Ealing’s primary and secondary schools. Some £95.240 million of schools capital spending has been added to the capital programme. Of this £79.063 million (or 83%) is government grants. For all of Labour’s bluster about the ending of the wasteful BSF programme the government is providing vast sums of money to support the expansion of the Borough’s schools system.

Looking across the existing capital programme and the money outlined above some £291 million is currently programmed to be spent on the Borough’s schools of which some £185 million (or 64%) is coming from the Tory-led government as Labour now likes to call it. Don’t expect Labour’s lacklustre education lead, Dr Patricia Walker, to explain this to you.

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Labour to keep ward forums

The council’s new capital programme, outlined here, makes it clear that Labour is going to maintain the system of ward forums set up under the previous Tory administration. The new programme provides two more years of capital funding for 2014/15 and 2015/16, see page 3, item 12.

I was concerned that Labour would be be tempted to dismantle this system and I am glad that it will remain for a few more years. Personally, I would like to see the system expanded to give local people and their councillors more power to set priorities at a ward level.

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Voodoo economics Part 354

Labour’s Bassam Mahfouz is evidently pleased with his appearance on the Sunday Politics TV programme in Sunday, click here and move the slider to 44:20.

Cllr Mafouz mentioned LED lighting.

But on top of that we are looking at moving forward by installing energy efficient LED lighting right across all of the streetlights that we have in the Borough.

As it happens we were discussing this programme with council officers last night at the Conservative group meeting. If you look at the Budget Strategy Report 2012/13, Appendix 4, page 3, row 14 you will see that the council is planning to spend £6.8 million on this apparently commendable venture. When officers were challenged on the payback period for this “investment” the answer was 12 years. The lights are only due to last 15 years so they will only be “above water” or “in the money” for the last three years of their lives.

There is no way that a business would expend scarce capital on a project with such a long payback period. Although the council’s cost of finance is lower than most if not all businesses it is very strange that the council wants to take on £6.8 million of debt on such a shaky project. Apparently officers are trying to model future energy prices to make the payback period look better. Sounds like post justification of a poor decision and warped priorities to me. No business would speculate on far distant energy prices to justify such a decision. On a philosophical note examples like this show how government “crowds out” businesses – people would rather lend to governments to do stupid things than companies that would potentially invest in more useful things for the economy.

Once such LED streetlights become more common their price will plunge. We should not be an early adopter. When the payback period gets down to 2 or 3 years at current energy prices we should jump in. In the meantime there are better things to do with the money – even if only to leave it in the hands of residents. They could certainly find some projects with better payback than 12 years.

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Empire of the Slow

It has been a disappointing few days with regard to the cinema. Last Tuesday I drove past the cinema first thing. It appeared that some work was going on but it was only men taking scaffolding down. This caused a bit of a stir of excitement that something was happening with the cinema. It wasn’t. They were merely making sure that no-one could access the site.

On Thursday we had Overview and Scrutiny Committee (OSC). We had invited the chief executive of Empire cinemas, Justin Ribbons, to come and give us an update on progress with Ealing cinema after his appearance in the summer. Ribbons did not turn up but sent the e-mail apology below to the OSC officer Keith Fraser at lunchtime on the day of the meeting.

OSC recommended that the council’s cabinet press ahead with its compulsory purchase order of the cinema site. This will not make Empire quake in their boots but hopefully it helps keep up the pressure on them.

After so long residents will be disappointed and cynical about another delay. Ealing Central and Acton MP Angie Bray has written to Justin Ribbons today to take him to task, see below, click to enlarge.

Empire are not covering themselves in glory here in Ealing. I am not quite sure why Ribbons is so unwilling to communicate clearly. We all know these are hard times for businesses as well as individuals. We might have some sympathy if problems were explained. The silence from Empire makes us think the worst of it.

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Ed Balls: “We are going to have keep all these cuts.”

Ed Balls this morning uses the Guardian to admit that the “too far, too fast” rhetoric of Labour’s first 20 months of opposition is now redundant. He puts his hands up and tells us that he accepts the need for cuts.

My starting point is, I am afraid, we are going to have keep all these cuts. There is a big squeeze happening on budgets across the piece. The squeeze on defence spending, for instance, is £15bn by 2015. We are going to have to start from that being the baseline. At this stage, we can make no commitments to reverse any of that, on spending or on tax. So I am being absolutely clear about that.

We have heard various pronouncements over the last few days as Labour tries to dig itself out of its fantasy economics hole. Ed Balls has now accepted the whole package on behalf of his party. 20 months late but welcome anyway.

The return of the Euro crisis and the French debt downgrade will eclipse Balls’ submission so he gets to get his message out on “a good day to bury bad news”. The French downgrade simply underlines the necessity of having a credible budget. Osborne was right.

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Now I know why I hate Alex Salmond

Sometime after the Braveheart movie came out in 1995 I heard a silly Scotsman voxpopped on TV or radio. His reaction to the film was “Now I know why I hate the English”. Apparently he didn’t know why he had hated the English before he saw the movie. His hatred was obviously just some inchoate, congenital thing that had come down through seven centuries with his DNA and nothing to do with the modern state that we both live in. I am sure that the feeling was mutual at the end of the 13th Century. Mel Gibson’s one-sided film failed to mention that William Wallace was reputed to have worn a belt of human skin flayed from the body of the hated English tax collector Hugh de Cressingham. Nice.

I don’t really hate Alex Salmond. But, having seen this letter from Salmond to the disgraced banker Fred Goodwin in the run up to the calamitous takeover of parts of the Dutch bank ABN Amro by Royal Bank of Scotland, I do think that he made a total fool of himself sucking up to Goodwin. (Thanks to Faisal Islam at Channel 4 for finding this particular smoking gun.) This takeover marked the high point of UK banking stupidity in the early years of this century. Signing his letter “Yours for Scotland, Alex” was particularly emetic. With this one letter Salmond has accepted moral liability for the bad debts of Bank of Scotland and Royal Bank of Scotland on behalf of the people of Scotland. No amount of blaming the banking crisis on English regulators will wash. The largest part of the UK banking crisis was terrible commercial lending decisions made in Edinburgh – almost identical in fact the ludicrous ones made in Dublin. Yours for Scotland.

Salmond is a clever enough bloke, but this letter taken together with his totally debunked Arc of Prosperity schtick (can’t believe the SNP haven’t taken that off their website) proves he does not have as sure a touch as some imagine. On the evidence he is a man given to wishful thinking. I hope that he doesn’t succeed in breaking up my country.

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Dr Sahota should stop misrepresenting local NHS changes


I have only just seen this letter in the Gazette
from Labour’s Dr Onkar Sahota, their candidate for the Ealing & Hillingdon GLA seat. It didn’t make it into the Ealing & Acton version that comes through my door which maybe reflects the Gazette’s calculations about the attractiveness of this candidate outside Southall.

If Sahota was some journeyman, hack councillor he might be forgiven for completely twisting the facts around the currently proposed re-structuring of health services in our area. But he isn’t. He is a doctor. It is his colleagues who are proposing this re-structuring. It is “clinically led”. I don’t think he is helping his patients in the long term by slagging off his clinical colleagues on the other side of the purchaser-provider divide.

Sahota really starts lying when he talks about “Tory cuts”. The NHS is one area where the Coalition are committed to not cutting. Increasing NHS spending in real terms is spelt in the Coalition Agreement:

The parties agree that funding for the NHS should increase in real terms in each year of the Parliament, while recognising the impact this decision would have on other departments.

The £20 billion of cuts that Sahota is alluding to and the equally mendacious Southall MP, Virendra Sharma, has specifically referred to are no such thing. They are savings. The distinction is important. The £20 billion is to be re-invested in NHS services. This whole exercise is the so-called Nicholson Challenge. It pre-dates the Coalition. It is an attempt to make the NHS more efficient so that it can do more for the same amount of money in real terms. Note – not more for less. Just to stand still the NHS has to run much faster.

I am open minded about what local clinicians propose for local services. They have to make it work. I would like to see Ealing Hospital being efficiently used to provide services for local people. I am glad to see clinicians at the forefront of designing future health services here in Ealing.

Sahota is lying when he talks about cuts. He knows the difference. If he wants to call this exercise cuts he needs to call them Labour cuts because they were set in train under Labour. People expect more of doctors.

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More free money from Livingstone

This ad from Ken Livingstone is to appear in the Evening Standard later today. The message that Labour is trying to convey is that if you vote for Livingstone he will give you £1,000. Nice. But, how can anyone believe Ken’s promises?

Will he pay for this with more government grant? No.

Will he be able to borrow more to pay for this? Maybe, but it would take a lot of cooking the books. Probably no, but not beyond belief.

Will he bear down on TfL’s cost base? Boris is already doing this prompting big complaints from the unions. Do we see Livingstone making progress with this? No.

The Labour line is superficially attractive. Free money always is. If they can’t explain in detail how they will do it then it is just a line. We have had enough of those from Labour. Today Miliband is trying to convince us that Labour gets the deficit. The same day Livingstone sticks up two fingers and says “Let’s dish out the dosh”.

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New Year, Same Old Ken

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