We all know that Rupa Huq was elected as the MP for Ealing Central and Acton (EC&A) last week, and that Angie Bray lost. But how did people vote and how did their vote change from 2010 when this new constituency was first contested?
In 2010 EC&A was a three way marginal with the Conservatives getting 17,944 votes (38.0% of the vote), Labour 14,228 (30.1%) and the LibDems a very respectable “I agree with Nick” 13,041 (27.6%). UKIP 765 (1.6%) and the Greens 737 (1.6%) remained only minor players.
In 2015 EC&A has reverted to being a two-way marginal with three minor parties.
The turnout increased by a healthy 4% percentage points this year going from 67.52% to 71.5%. The total number of (valid) voters increased by 3,694 (8%) from 47,418 to 50,935 (driven by the rise in turnout, there being 1,000 more registered voters and fewer spoilt ballot papers).
The Conservatives added 3,784 extra voters increasing their vote share from 38.0% to 42.7%. This is a great result. The Conservatives got almost another 5% points of vote share. Their voters increased by more than the overall increase in voters. They upped the number of people voting for them by 21%.
Of course Labour did even better. They got 7,774 extra votes increasing their vote share by 13% from 30.1% to 43.2%. 55% more people voted for Labour.
I think what is clear from these numbers is that both the local Conservatives and Labour party worked very hard for people’s votes this year. The LibDems lost almost 10,000 votes and were harshly punished for their time in the Coalition government. Labour gained almost 8,000 votes as many disaffected LibDems joined them spurred on I think by Labour’s mendacious NHS campaign. The Conservatives picked up almost 4,000 extra voters and disappointingly, for me at least, came within a whisker of keeping Angie Bray’s seat.
Both UKIP and the Greens doubled their votes picking up over 1,000 new votes each. Both lost their deposits. The LibDems did at least keep their deposit but were only about 500 votes away from losing it.
It seems to me that the Conservative vote held up very well in this constituency. The Labour vote increased but one third of their voters are borrowed. With Rupa Huq’s tiny majority of 274 I think she will be spending every spare hour in her constituency or she will be toast in 2020.
My prediction is that the Ealing Labour party will take every opportunity to subvert the council and its resources to promote Rupa Huq over the next five years. Expect to see her elbowing her way to the front of every municipal photo opportunity.