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Ealing and Northfield

Ealing Labour collapses

The council has just published the European election results for the Borough, see here. They show a solid performance for Ealing’s Conservatives. More people voted for the Tories in 2009 than in 2004. The Tory vote share went from 22.8% to 25.6%, a rise of 2.8%. Across London, see posting below, the Tories lost 5% of their voters. In Ealing we held on to our voters and actually added a few (18 to be precise). This sounds unexciting but look at what happened to Labour.

Labour’s vote share went from 32.0% in 2004 to 25.7% in 2009, a drop of 6.3%. This means that Labour lost 7,354 votes or 28.3% of their total vote in 2004. Across London Labour lost 20% of their voters but they performed even worse in Ealing.

Labour still “beat” the Tories by 107 votes. A somewhat pyrrhic victory I think. In 2004 they beat the Tories by 7,479 votes. Once you take out the UKIP/Euro factor Ealing still looks like a safe Tory borough in spite of the negative effect of the Westminster expenses scandal. As soon as Gordon Brown sorts his head out and resigns we will have three Tory MPs in Ealing.

4 replies on “Ealing Labour collapses”

“Labour’s vote share went from 32.0% in 2004 to 25.7% in 2009, a drop of 6.3%”

Which is almost exactly the percentage won by Jan Jananayagam, the pro-Tamil candidate. Isn’t it really the case that she has split the Labour vote at a time when when feelings are running high in the Tamil community. What do you think the outcome would have been had Jananayagam not been on the ballot paper?

Appealing,

You are half right. If the Tamil lady’s votes were all Labour votes that would restore their vote share. But, she only got 4,716 votes so even if one accepts your assertion Labour still lost 2,638 votes. The Tories kept all of their voters.

Your assertion is pretty insulting to Tamil people in my view. I suspect that they have a range of political affiliations. I am sure that well to do Tamil doctors, engineers and businessmen don’t vote Labour on the whole.

Would it be fair to say the Tories were – given the national picture – hoping to surpass Labour in the Euro elections having won back the council in 2006?

Three Tory MPs in Ealing seems very confident too. We shall see.

Claire,

Frankly I had no pre-conceptions about the European elections. When I talked to people in the run up to the day I made a point of not raising Europe to see if anybody else would raise it – very few did.

As an ex-athlete I believe in controlling the controllables. That means focussing on what you can do yourself rather than worrying about what the other guy is doing. In politics all you can do is get your voters to vote. Sure you can change minds but it is a slow process. Parties lose when their voters are embarrassed or angry and they stay at home. Parties win when their voters go out and do their duty. Having done the numbers and seeing Tory numbers across London down 5% you have got to be pleased with yourself if you add voters. Across London Labour have lost 20% of their voters and in Ealing it is even worse at 28%. Believe me, I am happy.

Yes three MPs would be a stretch but one is a cert and I’d say two is realistic and three is possible.

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